Country: Somalia
Closing date: 20 Dec 2013
Chemonics seeks a monetization impact consultant for Somalia 2011/12 Food Aid Monetization Market Impact Evaluation study for Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) III. We are looking for individuals who have a passion for making a difference in lives of people around the world.
Somalia experienced widespread food insecurity in 2011. Delayed and low levels of seasonal rains in north, southern, and central Somalia, coupled with civil unrest in some areas, resulted in widespread emergency and famine conditions, particularly in Southern Somalia. In a typical year, even without severe production shortfall, Somalia commercially imports around half of its total cereal supply. Markets are understood as being fairly well integrated in Somalia, where traders have maintained access to major markets, including those controlled by organizations such as Al Shabaab. Maize and sorghum production shortfalls during two subsequent seasons (Deyr 2010/11 and Gu 2011) put stress on local grain markets, leading traders to increase their volume of key imported substitutes for local grains. However, arranging imports flows were not risk-free as traders faced uncertainty about whether humanitarian response organizations were planning to implement free staple food distributions in affected areas, which could greatly undermine commercial import and trading incentives.
In response to the market supply and humanitarian conditions present in 2011, food aid monetization was proposed and eventually implemented as one element of a multi-faceted humanitarian response strategy with financing by the United States Agency for International Development/Food for Peace (USAID/FFP). Monetization was seen as a channel through which to maintain commercial interests in serving markets while alleviating consumer prices. More specifically, by selling additional grain to the commercial sector, these interventions were expected to increase market supplies and thus decrease consumer prices.
This was not Somalia’s first experience with monetization under such circumstances, as large-scale monetization was carried out in 1992-1993 with largely the same goals. However, at the time of both the 1992/1993 and 2011/12 interventions, questions were raised about the direct and spill-over impacts of monetization efforts on market prices and whether or not the timing and magnitude of monetization activities played a determining role in the overall impact of such programs on staple food markets.
Objective:
Improve FEWS NET, and USAID’s understanding of the impact of staple food monetization efforts on market prices and functioning. Specifically the study will aim to:
a. Make a general statement about the impact sales had on the market (e.g., cereal availability and prices) along the lines of "no impact,""small impact," or "substantial impact"
b. Connect market impact (if detected) to program benchmarks (e.g., announcement of program, arrival of commodities at port, sales, etc.)
c. Comment on the geographic movement and eventual distribution of sorghum post-sale, making use of the data already collected by a previous evaluator (who conducted surveys in a number of markets in Somalia) and existing market enumerator data from the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU)
d. Comment qualitatively on how market impact of monetization (if detected) could have impacted consumers.
e. Inform future monetization implementation efforts in terms of the appropriate timing, location, quantities, and price levels to use in settings where markets are typically well integrated but purchasing power has eroded due to limited market supplies and resulting high prices as a result of a shock
Activities:
1. Literature review of the impact of food aid monetization-type programs (including institutional purchases and sales, more broadly) on staple food prices and other indicators of staple food market performance (e.g. food availability, commercial import flows, or trader behavior)
2. Conduct telephone or Skype interviews with key informants from implementing partners, FEWS NET Somalia, FFP and, if possible, members of the private sector in Somalia and Dubai to collect qualitative and quantitative information about the impact of ongoing staple food monetization on markets (particularly supply levels as well as price levels and variability)
3. Descriptive analysis of FSNAU staple food price series and monetization prices and quantities in key Somali markets in 2011/12. The specific markets and commodities chosen for the analysis will be largely informed via literature review and discussions with key informants
4. Develop testable hypotheses about the direct and indirect relationships between food aid monetization efforts and staple food price levels in Somalia. Test those hypotheses using qualitative and quantitative (statistical) methods. An example of a testable hypothesis of interest is that the sorghum monetization program had no negative impact on staple food prices in Mogadishu in 2011 and 2012
5. Develop a final report and policy synthesis brief, and deliver a final oral and visual presentation to FEWS NET Washington
Deliverables:
1. Final report (approximately 25 pages excluding tables and graphs) with an introduction, literature review, timeline of events, conceptual/analytical framework, methodological approach, data, results, and main lessons learned
2. Policy synthesis brief (2-3 pages) summarizing the key lessons learned from the study
3. A final presentation (either in person or via teleconference) of the results from the study to the FEWS NET home office technical team and regional field office staff (who will participate remotely)
Time frame:
This consultancy is for 30 days of work to be completed between January 1, 2014 and March 1, 2014.
The consultant can work remotely from anywhere in the world, provided that the person has the ability to communicate regularly via telephone, Skype, and e-mail with the FEWS NET home office and key informants in the field.
Qualifications:
- Minimum master's degree candidate in economics, agricultural economics or related discipline
- Completed master's or PhD level coursework in commodity market analysis and time-series econometric theory
- The successful candidate must be able to communicate effectively via e-mail and telephone with FEWS NET staff as well key collaborators and informants
- Familiarity with food aid monetization schemes
- Prior knowledge of program and project impact evaluation literature and the challenges in conducting such analyses in a non-randomized setting
- Knowledge of the Structure-Conduct-Performance framework and applications. Knowledge of time-series econometric theory, methods (MS level minimum), and software packages (STATA, GAUSS or R)
Reporting requirements:
During the assignment, the consultant will report to FEWS NET’s decision support advisor. The consultant will also receive technical directions from the markets and trade advisor.
Application Instructions:
Send electronic submissions to SO_mon_eval@chemonics.com by December 31, 2013. Please include the name of the position in the subject line. No telephone inquiries, please. Finalists will be contacted.
PI69244681
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